The Labour Party Conference 2025
Labour held its Party Conference in Liverpool for the third year in a row. Compared with last year’s behemoth, this year was more restrained - a mere 17,000 attendees instead of last year’s record 22,000!
This note is intended to give a flavour of what Conference was like and what pointers we should take away from it.
What is Conference?
For those how have never been to a Party Conference, a little explanation. It is like a gigantic Fresher’s Week. Essentially there are three parts to it:
The Main Hall, where the most important Cabinet Members and PM give their set-piece speeches and where the work of the Labour Party itself is carried out, voting on motions and agreeing internal appointments by vote of members.
Just outside the main hall (which seats about 6,000 people) is the Exhibition Hall, where companies like Sainsbury’s, or Ineos have stands, along with the Labour Party and any number of charities.
The rest of the Conference Centre is given over to ‘Fringe events’ which frequently feature Cabinet and junior Ministers either being interviewed (‘in conversation with’), or debates on topics which range from subjects like ‘Should Labour Renationalise Everything?’ to ‘Will Labour hit its 2030 Carbon Budget Targets?’ Since there are about 30-40 Fringe Events every hour, it is not possible to attend them all, so (like Freshers’ Week) you choose which events to attend on the basis of interest, access and relevance to clients’ needs. In the evening, there are dinners and receptions, hosted by business organisations, think tanks and Trades Unions. Generally speaking the day begins with a breakfast at around 0730 and finishes after a reception (or a dinner) at around 2200 (though those with more stamina often crawl home in the early hours).
What was the Mood Like This Year?
I had confidently expected the mood to be desperate. Reform is sailing serenely ahead in the polls, where Labour is languishing on 20% (it was at 45% in May 2024…!). Like the Party, the PM is desperately unpopular (John Curtice’s presentation was particularly sobering. According to his polling, Labour has suffered the sharpest fall in support for a newly elected government in history and Keir Starmer is the least popular prime minister in the history of his polling). The economy is stubbornly stuck in low-growth mode, with inflation above expectations and public sector debt at nearly 100% of GDP. The country expects Chancellor Reeves to impose even more taxes in her Budget next month. Labour has no unifying narrative to explain its mission in Government. And Andy Burnham had been brandishing his leadership credentials, bringing out into the open the rumours that I had been hearing behind the scenes since April that the Party itself was restless under Starmer’s leadership and considering regicide.
And yet, unlike last year, where, despite having won a Parliamentary landslide only 3 months before, the mood was gloomy, almost despondent, I found the Party in surprisingly buoyant and defiant mood. There was a new honesty about the difficulties the country (and Party) faced and a welcome sense of urgency. I attended one invite-only event which was addressed by The Chancellor, PM and three Cabinet members, as well as one of the MPs most popular with Party Members, where the speeches and rapport with the attendees showed a Party with real fire in its belly. At another (public) event, I heard a senior Cabinet member say “the public know that we have a big problem in the economy”, and that “our politics is going through turmoil”. I felt that Conference was willing Starmer to succeed and, although his main speech may have been short on policy announcements, it was by some distance his most pugnacious, uplifting and rousing speech and there was a warmth reflected back to him from those listening in the hall. It belied his somewhat staid reputation by being also passionate and personal (he was heard saying as he went off stage ‘That was me. That was me’). It presented the Party faithful clear dividing lines to believe in - “decency or division, renewal or decline” - and an enemy to fight (Reform, not the Conservatives – who Starmer, perhaps surprisingly said, that ‘he could sleep easy under’). As other commentators have noted, the fact that Farage’s response was so angry, suggests that this new positioning may already be paying off.
Is Starmer Reborn?
Nick Robinson said everyone he spoke to was talking about who was going to replace Starmer. He obviously was not speaking to the same people to whom I spoke, as no one I met was asking that question. Rather, the impression I got from MPs, Ministers and the Gen Sec of the Labour Party was more that Andy Burnham’s rather ham-fisted attempt to have the crown placed on his head by Labour MPs (‘I’m not doing this for me’ he said ‘I have been approached by Labour MPs who have asked me to take on the role’) had reminded the Party that the country does not like internecine warfare and that Starmer had been chosen as the anti-Johnson candidate (an uncharismatic, details-focused pragmatist who takes decisions based on their merits, rather than on whether they fit into any particular political story). With Burnham having self-combusted and no one else apparently waiting in the wings desperate for a go, it felt to me as if the Party had sobered up and swung back in-line behind Starmer.
The PM’s speech was the one the Party faithful had been waiting to hear and, by positioning progressive values as the antidote to Reform and issuing a call to arms to do battle for the soul of the country, it set a new tone and focus to Labour’s narrative, one which is more confrontational, assertive and confident. People in the Party already know that Starmer has a ruthless streak. And he demonstrated – both in his speech and in his public comments after it (in an interview with Nick Robinson: ‘I’ve been underestimated every time I’ve taken on a job like this. I’ve pushed through the barriers. I didn’t come into politics as some sort of popularity contest’) - that he is up for the fight and, in doing so, has given the Party not only a cause to fight, but a leader behind whom they can rally.
A Few Pointers
I was surprised at how left-of-centre some of the comments at Conference were. Peter Kyle made a point of stating in his Conference Speech (attended by 250 senior business leaders) that he would implement the Workers’ Rights Bill ‘in full’. There were plenty of calls for renationalisation of utilities - at one fringe event I attended, one of the MPs on the panel (perhaps taking their lead from Andy Burnham’s leftwing charge) called on the Government to prioritise ‘Labour over capital’ and ‘stop private companies looting the country’s assets’.
The Conference was an odd mixture of left and right. A definite and deliberate focus on building a more egalitarian society was juxtaposed by praise for wealth creators as the ‘engines of economic growth’. The PM rejected globalisation, saying New Labour had been too supportive of it; but at the same time, others recognised the role that globalisation had played in ‘lifting millions out of poverty’. An acceptance that people are worried about immigration (which the PM said previous Labour leaders had been ‘too casual about’) contrasted with comments praising the benefits It has brought the UK. Announcements of a range of economically interventionist measures to tackle poverty and inequality were balanced against the PM’s commitment to “strip out bad regulation” to stimulate growth and general praise for the private sector as the incubator of growth. Business response was mixed as well. Whilst many welcomed the Industrial Strategy, others were concerned it could be a Trojan Horse which allowed a return to 1970s-style State dirigisme. Many business contacts to whom I spoke said they were suspending judgement pending the Budget (which may also have explained the relative absence of talk about fiscal expansion or bolder redistribution as part of the answer to Reform’s narrative of grievance).
There were other apparent contradictions - the Government’s £5 billion Pride in Place Scheme was mentioned in a number of the fringe meetings I attended as evidence of new investment in left-behind communities, but it did not feature in the PM’s speech. And whilst Labour has announced more money for investment in infrastructure, green energy and social housing, there seems to be little new money for day-to-day funding of public services such as social care and local government.
And the contradictions in stance are reflected at a higher, strategic level too. Starmer repeatedly stressed that growth was the Government’s number one priority as the antidote to Reform’s narrative of grievance. But the Chancellor’s rigid adherence to her fiscal rules as a necessary condition for growth, in the face of the absence of any evidence of that growth is a contradiction which goes at least some way to explaining the fragmentation of Labour’s electoral coalition and one on which Reform has not been slow in seizing to support their discourse of continued decline.
The press labelled this combination of left and right ideas as ‘blue Labour” (leftwing economic policies combined with socially conservative values). And perhaps that is a helpful categorisation. Perhaps this mix of left-wing policies and right-wing language more accurately reflects the current views of the UK population – wanting State intervention to ‘change the way we create wealth’ but at the same time be tighter on immigration. Starmer might even argue that we who seek the ‘guiding doctrine’ have missed the point and that this flexibility is both deliberate and an appropriate response to the changing expectations of the British electorate.
Conclusion
As I noted at the outset, it was a significantly more up-beat Conference than I had expected. Starmer’s speech added to a sense of urgency and purpose. The inability of Burnham to set the halls alight with rebellion has also perhaps settled nerves in Number 10. The Tories’ continued failure to cut through in the polls has given Labour a single opponent on which to concentrate its political fire. And Labour has already put in place excellent policies (which it needs to be better at communicating), so there is a good story to tell. All of which contributed to the feeling almost of confidence, that, after a year in power, Labour was more comfortable with the task of governing and that it knew how to use the levers of power more effectively.
So far, so good. But a good Conference Speech and the failure of a stalking horse to make waves realistically offer only short-lived respite and the Government remains beset with risk….
The real drivers of voter discontent – cost of living increases, weak economic growth, poor public services and rising levels of public debt – are still out there. The Tories failed to solve those problems. If Labour does too, it risks voters viewing the Party as ‘continuity hopelessness’ and seeking their salvation in the arms of Reform.
That is one reason that the Labour Party is now focusing on Reform. But even that strategy is not without risk. As the old adage goes ‘in politics, all publicity is good publicity’. Concentrating Labour’s firepower on Reform has given them free publicity all week and anchored them in public perception as the Official Opposition – which is just where Nigel Farage wants them to be.
And then there is the ballot box…The Government must pass a very contentious Budget in less than six weeks and beyond that, it faces difficult elections in May in Scotland and Wales and at local level in London and across the country. That gives the Government only six months between Budget and Ballot for the voting public to feel the difference ‘in their pockets’ to avoid a catastrophic outcome at those elections: if it does not manage to turn things around by then and the results are as bad as current polling suggests then panic may set in – and leadership rumours will spring up afresh. In fact, some are already thinking about that scenario behind the scenes: a former member of Tony Blair’s Cabinet said to me ‘Starmer is a decent man. If he recognises he cannot turn things around, he may step aside voluntarily. Luckily, we have plenty of talent waiting in the wings’. I think he was referring to Shabana Mahmood, Peter Kyle, Wes Streeting and (whisper it quietly) Angela Rayner, whose fall from grace already feels temporary.
But the threat to Labour comes not just from the Right. The Government must walk a narrow line to keep its fractious Party together. Many Labour members are uncomfortable about the party’s shift to the right (slashing overseas aid spending to increase the defence budget; trying to cut the welfare bill; and tightening rules on immigration). These concerns add to worries amongst some senior Labour figures about a resurgent left-wing - Corbyn’s spat with Zara Sultana is likely to be patched up; the Greens have a new firebrand leader; and the Lib Dems have positioned themselves well to soak up those Labour supporters disappointed with the Government’s positions on Europe and the climate.
If Starmer’s speech is followed up with concrete actions to fix the country’s shortcomings, it will come to be seen as the turning point for his Government. If nothing changes, then it will be merely a plateau in the descending chart of his (and Labour’s) popularity. But for now, at least, Labour Party activists have gone home with fire in their belly, belief in their souls and an identified enemy in their sights.
How long that sense of purpose lasts, only time will tell….